Are You Ready For How Bad It Will Get?

Graham Summers
Phoenix Capital Research
August 16, 2010

For months now I have averred that the US economy was not in recovery and that in point of fact all talk of “recovery” was a load of BS.

The vast majority of investors are going to be taken to the cleaners.

I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least temporarily.

However, I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the following reasons:

1. The Government data used to validate the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on outright propaganda

2. We are in fact in a depression and the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the context of a larger economy contraction

Regarding #1, every Government data point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s consider GDP for instance.

There are numerous devious tactics used to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the subsequent quarters.

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