Predicting the Future Gold Price Misses the Point

Jason Kaspar
Activist Post

“Gold bugs” routinely solicit my prediction regarding the future gold price, assuming I must be an “educated” gold bug since my hedge fund happens to maintain large gold exposure.

I loathe the question, because a typical gold bug will not “hear” my response, instead waiting for me to validate their speculative fantasies with the prospect of dollar signs and five-figure gold. Will gold rise to $2000/oz? $10,000/oz?

Where is the gold price headed?  It depends on the variable.

-In what time period? The next week? Month? Year? Ten years? 
-Compared to what? Dollars? Euros? Real estate? Gummi bears?

Of course, nearly everyone wants a prediction in dollars, which is highly humorous and paradoxical because the purported destruction of the dollar is a primary reason to own gold in the first place. What victory is there if the dollar value declines 50% and the gold price doubles?

Eric Sprott Discusses Silver's Prospects And Last Week's Raid With Max Keiser (Video)

Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge


Eric Sprott, who according to some catalyzed the initial move lower in silver following his sale of PSLV units, to be followed by a bullish clarification that he transferred all proceeds into other silver holdings, was on Max Keiser late last week in an interview that anyone interested in the silver market should listen to.

“$52 to $56 Silver by Mid-year” Update

Fractal Silver Chart

Lorimer Wilson

Silverseek

Back on February 18th I wrote an editorial showing that Silver could rocket up to $52 to $56 by mid-year.  At the time of the writing Silver was sitting a little above $32 on the price chart.  The original chart work was based off of the fractal chart work I do with Silver from previous fractal time periods.  So far the rise in Silver appears to be right on track for our expected targets to be approached into mid-year.  I will post a link to the original article, below, for your perusal.

Silver has entered the more parabolic path of this historic PM Bull very much like it did back in the late 70s.  If you want to get a general idea of how far Silver still had to run, you can look at the original article link, above, where I posted a long-term chart of Silver back to the 70s.  On the 70s chart of Silver in that article, I placed a circle on the analogous place for Silver in the 70s compared to where Silver was on the chart when I wrote the original public article. 

To some extent, Silver is like the canary in the coal mine when it comes to the Vth Wave advance of the Precious Metals Bull.  The price of Silver acted the same way in the 1970s PM Bull Market since it takes a lot less speculative money to drive the price of Silver parabolic than it does for Gold.  Don’t forget the many times when Silver has led a charge in the PM sector to new highs only to be left like Wiley Coyote running into thin air off of a cliff. 

Obviously, something is different “this time.”  This time Silver has run wild on the upside, and Gold is following in its footsteps.   In fact, smaller investors can help to contribute to the advance into Wave V for Silver since it is easier for them to accumulate a larger amount of Silver with its lower price.  This is one point in a market cycle where what many call “Smart Money” can be out-run by smaller investors.

Read Full Article

Enter your email address to subscribe to our newsletter:


Delivered by FeedBurner

Can You Pass The 2011 Gold Quiz?

By Jeff Clark
BIG GOLD


CPM Group recently released their 2011 Gold Yearbook, an invaluable resource for us gold analysts. Mostly a reference book, even a gold enthusiast might find it dry reading. But I loved it, and as I studied it on a plane, I kept finding data that made me perk up.


To have a little fun with it, I thought I’d summarize what I read in the form of a quiz. See how many you can get correct. Regardless of your score, I’m sure you’ll agree with the ramifications each point makes for the gold market.


I’ll start off easy…

1)      The main driver behind rising gold prices over the past decade is:

a)      Increased jewelry demand in India
b)      Greater industrial uses of the metal
c)      Investment demand