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Showing posts with label gold investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gold investing. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

A Rare Anomaly in the Gold Market

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Jeff Clark
Casey Research

Gold stock investors have been pummeled, including myself. Worse, we've had to hear "I told you so" from all the gold haters in the media.

There are a few commentators expressing mild interest in gold at these levels, but one thing I haven't heard any of them talk about is a metric that gold analysts are rarely able to use, because gold stocks just don't get this undervalued.

Mainstream analysts sometimes talk about book value, especially when a stock appears cheap. Book value (BV) is a metric that, in essence, sets the floor for a stock price in a worst-case scenario. BV is equal to stockholders' equity on the balance sheet, and is the theoretical value of a company's assets minus liabilities – sometimes you'll hear this called "net asset value" (NAV). So when a stock price yields a market capitalization (share price x number of shares outstanding) equal to BV, the investor has a degree of safety, because if it dropped lower, a buyer could theoretically come in, buy up all shares, liquidate the company's assets, and pocket the difference.

Price to book value (P/BV) shows the stock price in relation to the company's book value. A stock can be considered "cheap" when it is trading at a historically low P/BV. Or, even better, it can be considered objectively " undervalued" when it is trading below book value.

Sunday, June 2, 2013

Will Declining Gold Resources Raise Its Value?

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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

What Will the Price of Gold Be in January 2014?

Jeff Clark
Casey Research

While many of us at Casey Research don't like making price predictions, and certainly ones accompanied by a specific date, it's hard to ignore the correlation between the US monetary base and the gold price.

That correlation says we'll see $2,300 gold by January 2014.

There are plenty of long-term charts that show a connection between gold and various other forms of money (and credit). Most show that one outperforms until the other catches up. But let's zero in on our current circumstances, namely the expansion of the US monetary base since the financial crisis hit in 2008.

Here's the performance of the gold price compared to the expansion of the monetary base since January 2008.


You can see the trends are very similar. In fact, the correlation coefficient is an incredible +0.94.

Sunday, May 1, 2011

Central Banks Buying Gold At Record Pace

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Gold bar Wikimedia Commons image
Activist Post

One would think the record price for gold would cause some profit taking by large institutions. Indeed, the media is trying to convince people that now is the time for individuals to take their profits on old jewelry and coins. 

However, Bloomberg reported this week that central banks around the world, who were net sellers of gold a decade ago when it was a bargain, are now net buyers of gold, indicating that gold may be poised to reach $2000 an ounce:

In 2010, central banks became net buyers for the first time in two decades, adding 87 metric tons in official-sector purchases by countries including Bolivia, Sri Lanka and Mauritius, according to World Gold Council data. China, with more than $3 trillion in foreign-currency reserves, plans to set up new funds to invest in precious metals, Century Weekly reported this week. Russia purchased 8 tons of gold in the first quarter.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Investment Legends: “Dollar Collapse Inevitable”

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Dees Illustration
Jeff Clark
BIG GOLD

What will happen to the U.S. economy and the dollar in the near term? Will inflation increase dramatically? What is the outlook for gold, and where should you put your money? BIG GOLD asked a world-class panel of economists, authors, and investment advisors what they expect for the future. Caution: strong opinions ahead...

Jim Rogers is a self-made billionaire, author of the best-sellers Adventure Capitalist and Investment Biker, and a sought-after financial commentator. He was a co-founder of the Quantum Fund, a successful hedge fund, and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).

Bill Bonner is the president and founder of Agora, Inc., a worldwide publisher of financial advice and opinions. He is also the author of the Internet-based Daily Reckoning and a regular columnist inMoneyWeek magazine.

Peter Schiff is CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals (www.europacmetals.com) and host of the daily radio show The Peter Schiff Show (www.schiffradio.com). He is the author of the economic parable How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes and the recent financial bestseller The Little Book of Bull Moves: Updated and Expanded. He’s a frequent guest on CNBC, Fox Business, and is quoted often in print media.

Jeffrey Christian is managing director of CPM Group (www.cpmgroup.com) and a prominent analyst on precious metals and commodities markets. CPM Group produces comprehensive yearbooks on gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and provides a wide range of consulting services. Jeffrey published Commodities Rising, an investors’ guide to commodities, in 2006.

Walter J. "John" Williams, private consulting economist and “economic whistleblower,” has been working with Fortune 500 companies for 30 years. His newsletter Shadow Government Statistics(shadowstats.com) provides in-depth analysis of the government’s “creative” economic reporting practices.

Steve Henningsen is chief investment strategist and partner at The Wealth Conservancy in Boulder, CO, assisting clients interested in wealth preservation. Current assets under management exceed $200 million.

Frank Trotter is an executive vice president of EverBank and a founding partner of EverBank.com, a national branchless bank that was acquired by the current EverBank in 2002. He received an M.B.A. from Washington University and has over 30 years experience in the banking industry.

Dr. Krassimir Petrov is an Austrian economist and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Ohio State University. He was assistant professor in economics at the American University in Bulgaria, then an associate professor in finance at Prince Sultan University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He is currently an associate professor at Ahlia University in Manama, Bahrain. He’s been a contributing editor for Agora Financial and Casey Research.

Bob Hoye is chief financial strategist of Institutional Advisors and writes Pivotal Events, a weekly market overview. His articles have been published by Barron’s, Financial PostFinancial Times, andNational Post.

Friday, March 18, 2011

The World’s Best Gold Experts: “Buy and Hold!”



Jeff Clark
BIG GOLD

In January, Jeff Clark of Casey Research’s BIG GOLD advisory set out to get opinions from some of the smartest, most accomplished investors in the gold industry – where is the gold price going to go, how volatile will the markets be, what’s the outlook for precious metals stocks? Read on for some of the most insightful answers you’ll see anywhere…

Rick Rule is the founder of Global Resource Investments (www.gril.net), now part of Sprott, one of the most acclaimed and sought-after brokers in the natural resource industry. Rick has spent 30 years in the sector and is a regular speaker at investment conferences in the U.S. and Canada. He and his staff have an extraordinary record of success in resource stock investing.

James Turk is the founder and chairman of GoldMoney.com. He’s authored two books on economic topics, published numerous articles on money and banking, and is co-author of The Collapse of the Dollar. He’s a widely recognized expert on precious metals.

John Hathaway is portfolio manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund, the third best-performing gold mutual fund in 2010. He is a Harvard grad with 41 years of investment management experience.

Charles Oliver is senior portfolio manager of the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund (and several others). Charles led the team at AGF Management that was awarded the Canadian Investment Awards’ “Best Precious Metals Fund” in 2004, 2006, and 2007.

Adrian Ash runs the research desk at BullionVault, one of the world's largest online gold ownership services. A frequent guest on BBC News in London, his views on the gold market are regularly featured in the Financial TimesThe Economist, and many others.

Ian McAvity has been writing the Deliberations on World Markets newsletter since 1972. He was a founder of the Central Fund of Canada (CEF), Central Gold Trust (GTU), and Silver Bullion Trust (SBT.U).

Ross Norman is co-founder of TheBullionDesk.com, an online provider of precious metals news, analysis, and prices. Ross has won several awards from the London Bullion Market Association for his price forecasting, winning in 2002 and 2006.He now runs Sharps Pixley (www.sharpspixley.com), which sells bullion in the UK and continental Europe.

Monday, March 14, 2011

The Rule of Gold After The Financial Collapse

SARTRE, Contributing Writer
Activist Post

In a secular world, the operative "Golden Rule" is "He Who Has the Gold Makes the Rules". The condition of the global financial banking system is untenable. The aggregate amount of debt worldwide is anyone’s guess. The introduction of derivatives and counter claims pushes the chain of obligations into the unknown. All that is left is for central banks to create mountains of uninterrupted counterfeit money to roll over and delay the inevitable. The IMF chart of World Currency Reserve is a skyrocket line to oblivion. It does not reflect a healthy stockpile of treasure, but certainly manifests a new debt machine running to infinity. The Bullion Vault explains this reality in the following manner.
"Sure, the Fed can create money. But it can't create credit (from the Latin credere, "to trust, have faith"). And it sure as hell can't let America's outstanding debts – both private and public – simply get written off now, neither at home nor abroad. Not after all that crashing and banging in ER from 2007-09.
So never mind the record-large cash pile sitting at non-financial corporates. Never mind that their problem is too much debt, not the $1.8 trillion in cash they've already got. Never mind the 50-fold growth since 2007 to $1 trillion in US banks' cash holdings either. Again, debt is their problem – not a lack of money – but it doesn't matter. New money is the only fix Dr. Ben now has to hand (he's all out of interest-rate cuts). So those foreign reserves, US corporates and domestic banks already drowning in money will get flooded with more".


Back in 1966 Alan Greenspan wrote inThe Objectivist, Gold and Economic Freedom.
"Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets".
Since the gold standard was abandoned worldwide, the banksters have run wild. 


So who owns all the gold? Part of the answer is that the official sector holds much less, than one might think.

holders.jpg

Wealth Daily concurs with the Dollar Daze list of largest holders of bullion - United States, Germany, International Monetary Fund, Italy, France, SPDR Gold Shares, China, Switzerland, Japan and Netherland, rank as the top ten. 
"Central banks and multinational organizations (such as the International Monetary Fund) currently hold just under one-fifth of global above-ground stocks of gold as reserve assets (amounting to around 30,500 tonnes, dispersed across 110 organisations). On average, governments hold around 10% of their official reserves as gold, although the proportion varies country-by-country".
So how much gold is there above ground?
Total 165,600 metric tons above ground stock
1 metric tonne = 32,150.746 Troy ounces
Total 5,324,163,537 Troy ounces
Price Quote at $1,424.00 per ounce
Total value in U.S. Dollars = 7 Trillion, 581 Billion, 608 Million, 876 Thousand and 688 Hundred Dollars of all gold worldwide.




Since the US Mint reports that Fort Knox stores 147.3 million troy ounces, current redemption in U.S. Federal reserve notes would be approximately $366,261,298,432. That is a drop in the bucket against the outstanding Federal obligations, which exceed world GDP. Then there is the question of exactly how much gold remains in government hands or if the bullion is actually good delivery gold. View the video there is no Gold at Fort Knox for an alarming report. Have you ever wondered why the Federal Reserve and their co-conspirer central banks for decades waged a war against gold?The Paper Empire sums up quite nicely.
"The Federal Reserve is arguably the most powerful institution in the world as it maintains the sole legal right to counterfeit the world’s reserve currency without limit and without oversight. This allows them to bail out the too big to fail banks, manipulate currencies, support foreign central banks and corporations and allow near endless government spending above and beyond what the government can pay for through direct taxation. A true, enforceable gold standard would put an immediate end to all of that".
Now examine the seamy history of IMF gold sales. The next video, The IMF sold Gold plated tungsten bars to India, illustrates why the international banking system needs to be eliminated. TheGold-plated tungsten bars scandal is about to erupt. Imagine the chaos among banking circles when governments become aware of a bait and switch delivery fraud.

If all the gold in the world has a current value of less than eight trillion dollars, how much could be bought by the Forbes 2011 Billionaires List, which breaks two records: total number of listees (1,210) and combined wealth ($4.5 trillion). How much do they already own? 

What is never disclosed in official statistics of wealth ownership are the names of the true underworld bosses of the global controllers. The shadow manipulators conceal the extent of their money hordes. Most public lists painstakingly omit the master criminals. Their plan is to buy real assets with counterfeit notes obtained through illicit profits from rigged markets and phony financial derivative instruments.  

When the banking system finally collapses with mathematical certitude from the burden of compound interest, these same crooks will be prepared to provide a specious substitute. The schemes described in IMF Plotting Gold-Backed SDRs?, make the following point.



"The IMF is about as likely to help individual European countries subvert the euro via gold as it is to encourage debtor countries not to honor banking their debts. The IMF is a creature of the power elite, and it will always remain so, in our opinion. But none of this militates against the idea of the IMF backing its OWN currency (SDRs) with gold".

Since 1999, the bulk of sales from central banks have been regulated by the Central Bank Gold Agreement/CBGAswhich have stabilised sales from 15 of the world's biggest holders of gold.
Significantly, gold sales from official sector sources have been diminishing in recent years. Net central bank sales amounted to just 41 tonnes in 2009.
Above-ground_stocks_sm.gif

A most revealing fact is that central banks and governments do not possess the bulk of gold supplies. The World Gold Council publishes an astounding pie chart, 83% of above ground stocks are in the hands of industry, investment and jewelry concerns. This overwhelming percentage points to an alternative to the fiat paper debt created banking tyranny.   


Only individual ownership of gold, directly in your own possession can preserve any store of value when the next Draconian level of the Totalitarian Collectivism system is imposed after the financial meltdown hits in earnest.


How much gold is enough?, offers up this solution. 


"When individuals acquire gold in mass, politicians will be forced to address the public debt, and the true extent of the unconscionable confiscatory taxation condition that we all suffer. Limited government can be achieved, but must be based upon a currency that has gold convertibility. There lies the answer, keep enough gold to insist that real money will replace phony Fed notes. Nothing less will restore a store of value or a nation of free citizens".
Remember that tyrannical regimes are always arbitrary. Executive Order 6102 was signed on April 5, 1933, by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion, and Gold Certificates" by U.S. citizens. This kind of blatant violation of the U.S. Constitution is routine. Citizen ownership of gold could very well become illegal again. 
However, if it is, you will already know you are a pawn in a fascist state.  


The risk banning gold ownership and government confiscation is always real for individuals. However, the prospects of rounding up gold bullion as contraband from banking institutions or the chosen and privileged financial elite, would require a coup d'état. The establishment will sacrifice hundreds of millions of expendable serfs, before it relinquishes the reins of superiority over the humble taxpayer.


An underground barter economy will thrive, while it is condemned as a black market. Any attempt to substitute new money with a gold component, must allow for unlimited convertibility for it to be a legitimate monetary system. As long as the same globalists retain political rule, you can bank on the scheme proposed to be another sophisticated attempt to rob and enslave you, all over again.


Douglas Herman offers up four possible scenarios, the best of which requires an old currency recall, and replacement with new species money. The other theories feed into the control matrix of the globalists to implement even greater despotic methods of servitude. Intentional civil unrest provides opportunistic excuses to herd the cattle into the pens of slaughter. Just owning private gold will not protect citizens adequately, until the gold hordes of the elite are stripped from their control. 


The decisive test remains the same, who has the bullion makes the rules, with one caveat. If you are so foolish to accept the next new-fangled money hoax from the same banksters who brought you their planned global collapse, you deserve to be a slave. Business wealth creators need to lead the charge to abolish the phony debt created money monopoly. Financial Armageddon lays at the feet of humanity. Gold alone will not save you, but it will allow the means for rebuilding a society free of banksters’ tyranny, only, if you have the courage to remove their ilk from all seats of power and government.    


Original article archived here 


SARTRE is the pen name of James Hall, a reformed, former political operative. This pundit's formal instruction in History, Philosophy and Political Science served as training for activism, on the staff of several politicians and in many campaigns. A believer in authentic Public Service, independent business interests were pursued in the private sector. Speculation in markets, and international business investments, allowed for extensive travel and a world view for commerce.  SARTRE is the publisher of BREAKING ALL THE RULES. Contact batr@batr.org   


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Tuesday, March 8, 2011

The Driver for Gold You’re Not Watching



Dees Illustration
Jeff Clark
BIG GOLD

You already know the basic reasons for owning gold – currency protection, inflation hedge, store of value, calamity insurance – many of which are becoming clichés even in mainstream articles. Throw in the supply and demand imbalance, and you’ve got the basic arguments for why one should hold gold for the foreseeable future.

All of these factors remain very bullish, in spite of gold’s 450% rise over the past 10 years. No, it’s not too late to buy, especially if you don’t own a meaningful amount; and yes, I’m convinced the price is headed much higher, regardless of the corrections we’ll inevitably see. Each of the aforementioned catalysts will force gold’s price higher and higher in the years ahead, especially the currency issues.
But there’s another driver of the price that escapes many gold watchers and certainly the mainstream media. And I’m convinced that once this sleeping giant wakes, it could ignite the gold market like nothing we’ve ever seen.


The fund management industry handles the bulk of the world’s wealth. These institutions include insurance companies, hedge funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc. But the elephant in the room is pension funds. These are institutions that provide retirement income, both public and private.
Global pension assets are estimated to be – drum roll, please – $31.1 trillion. No, that is not a misprint. It is more than twice the size of last year’s GDP in the U.S. ($14.7 trillion).

We know a few hedge fund managers have invested in gold, like John Paulson, David Einhorn, Jean-Marie Eveillard. There are close to twenty mutual funds devoted to gold and precious metals. Lots of gold and silver bugs have been buying.
So, what about pension funds?

According to estimates by Shayne McGuire in his new book, Hard Money; Taking Gold to a Higher Investment Level, the typical pension fund holds about 0.15% of its assets in gold. He estimates another 0.15% is devoted to gold mining stocks, giving us a total of 0.30% – that is, less than one third of one percent of assets committed to the gold sector.

Shayne is head of global research at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas. He bases his estimate on the fact that commodities represent about 3% of the total assets in the average pension fund. And of that 3%, about 5% is devoted to gold. It is, by any account, a negligible portion of a fund’s asset allocation.

Now here’s the fun part. Let’s say fund managers as a group realize that bonds, equities, and real estate have become poor or risky investments and so decide to increase their allocation to the gold market. If they doubled their exposure to gold and gold stocks – which would still represent only 0.6% of their total assets – it would amount to $93.3 billion in new purchases.

How much is that? The assets of GLD total $55.2 billion, so this amount of money is 1.7 times bigger than the largest gold ETF. SLV, the largest silver ETF, has net assets of $9.3 billion, a mere one-tenth of that extra allocation.

The market cap of the entire sector of gold stocks (producers only) is about $234 billionThe gold industry would see a 40% increase in new money to the sector. Its market cap would double if pension institutions allocated just 1.2% of their assets to it.

But what if currency issues spiral out of control? What if bonds wither and die? What if real estate takes ten years to recover? What if inflation becomes a rabid dog like it has every other time in history when governments have diluted their currency to this degree? If these funds allocate just 5% of their assets to gold – which would amount to $1.5 trillion – it would overwhelm the system and rocket prices skyward.

And let’s not forget that this is only one class of institution. Insurance companies have about $18.7 trillion in assets. Hedge funds manage approximately $1.7 trillion. Sovereign wealth funds control $3.8 trillion. Then there are mutual funds, ETFs, private equity funds, and private wealth funds. Throw in millions of retail investors like you and me and Joe Sixpack and Jiao Sixpack, and we’re looking in the rear view mirror at $100 trillion.

I don’t know if pension funds will devote that much money to this sector or not. What I do know is that sovereign debt risks are far from over, the U.S. dollar and other currencies will lose considerably more value against gold, interest rates will most certainly rise in the years ahead, and inflation is just getting started. These forces are in place and building, and if there’s a paradigm shift in how these managers view gold, look out!

I thought of titling this piece, “Why $5,000 Gold May Be Too Low.” Because once fund managers enter the gold market in mass, this tiny sector will light on fire with blazing speed.

My advice is to not just hope you can jump in once these drivers hit the gas, but to claim your seat during the relative calm of this month's level prices.

Jeff Clark is the editor of BIG GOLD, Casey Research's monthly advisory on gold, silver, and large-cap precious metals stocks. If this is the kind of in-depth information you’d like to utilize for your investments, give BIG GOLD a risk-free try with 3-month money-back guarantee.




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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Gold May Beat Silver, Lifting Ratio by as Much as 20%: Technical Analysis

Nicholas Larkin
Bloomberg

Gold may outperform silver, lifting the ratio between the two metals by as much as 20 percent, according to technical analysis by Societe Generale SA.

The attached chart shows the ratio of gold to silver steadied after dropping as low as 46.6 last week, near a two- year channel support line and the lows of 2008 and 1999. The second chart shows the ratio may climb to between about 56 and 58, which are retracement levels of the decline from June that are singled out in so-called Fibonacci analysis.

“The gold-silver ratio reached an important support at 47.5/46,” said Stephanie Aymes, a cross-commodity technical analyst with Societe Generale in London. “Gold will outperform silver to 56/58.”

An ounce of gold bought as little as 46.6 ounces of silver in London on Dec. 7, the least in almost four years. Precious metals gained this year on demand for a protection of wealth and an alternative to currencies. Some investors betting that silver may benefit from an economic recovery pushed the metal’s 2010 advance to 70 percent, outperforming gold’s 26 percent gain. Silver is used more in industry than gold.

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Saturday, December 11, 2010

Report: Swiss Bank Refuses to Release Gold

Bloomberg image: Adrian Moser 
Julie Crawshaw
Money News

A client of a major Swiss bank was recently refused access to his physical gold and had to hire attorneys and threaten to expose the bank publicly before finally getting it back in his own hands, according to Jim Rickards of Omnis.

“My inference is that that gold was not there,” Rickards told King World News. “The bank had to scramble, go out and find it somewhere before they could make good delivery.”

Rickards expects the world will eventually go to a gold standard-backed currency.

“To me, the big issue is, is it going to be intelligent or is it going to be ugly?” Rickards says. “Is it going to be something we think about, we have a public debate, hearing in Congress … we give some thought to, and then, over time … we do it in stages” so that markets can adjust.

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