It's ever more obvious, Greece must leave the euro

I've hardly been alone, but that's no excuse. For more than a year now, I've been regularly predicting the euro crisis's final denouement, yet still it hasn't arrived.

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Jeremy Warner
Telegraph

So I've been forced to reach a different conclusion; perhaps it never will. Instead, the eurozone has entered a seeming state of permanent crisis. In desperation, European policymakers have adopted a very British characteristic – the hope that they can somehow just muddle through.

But though no one can know the exact timing of the endgame – that's ultimately for the politicians to decide, so no time soon might be a reasonable bet – it's now fairly clear what that endgame must be.

What's presently being played out among the GIPS (Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain) is final proof that you cannot have a monetary union of such size among sovereign nations without compensating fiscal union. That simple underlying truth leaves the euro facing a choice between two equally unappetising outcomes.

Either the richer countries carry on bailing out the poorer ones more or less indefinitely, rather in the manner that Germany subsidises its formerly communist East, or membership of the euro has to be reconstituted on a smaller and more sustainable basis. There's really nothing in between. The longer European policymakers remain in denial about this choice, the worse the situation will become.

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EU leaders reach deal on debt crisis

European leaders reached agreement in the early hours of this morning on how to tackle the debt crisis afflicting the nations using the single currency, with significant concessions from Germany.

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Philip Aldrick
Telegraph

"The fundamental path was hacked open," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.

Along the way, Mrs Merkel made some serious concessions, which might cost her when she faces her electorate at home.

Together with her eurozone counterparts, Chancellor Merkel agreed to boost the region's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), so it can lend the full €440bn (£380bn) that it initially promised.

Up to now, the EFSF was only able to lend about €250bn because of several buffers required to get a good credit rating - fanning fears that it would not be big enough to save a large country like Spain.

The fund will also be allowed to buy the bonds of governments in financial difficulties on the open market, but only if the respective country is locked into a national bailout program based on strict conditions.

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Bloomberg Files Lawsuit Against European Central Bank

UNC Biz Blog

Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, filed a lawsuit Wednesday that asks the European Union’s General Court in Luxembourg to overturn a decision by the European Central Bank not to disclose documents that show how Greece used derivatives to hide its fiscal deficit.

Bloomberg editor in chief Matthew Winkler appeared on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday to talk about the suit. Winkler said, “It’s very straight forward. We are seeking full disclosure of documents that show how Greece was able to finance itself into a predicament that became the European debt crisis as we know it. It’s entirely to the benefit of all the members of the EU, all of the citizens, all the taxpayers and for sure the financial markets. Transparency is something that has a way of enlightening perspective.”

Winkler also commented on the derivatives Bloomberg is seeking more information on:  “In this case, very complicated, intricate financing techniques were deployed to essentially enable Greece to put off consistently any kind of transparent reckoning of its indebtedness. That’s really at the heart of this case and that’s really why we are seeking these documents.”

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Debt turmoil, contagion fears sweep Europe

Illustration: Market Oracle

Barry Hatton
Associated Press

LISBON, Portugal – Europe struggled mightily Friday to keep the debt crisis from engulfing country after country. Portugal passed austerity measures to fend off the speculative trades pushing it toward a bailout and Ireland rushed to negotiate its own imminent rescue.

As Portugal and Spain insisted they will not seek outside help, creating an eery sense of deja-vu for investors, Europe braced for what seems inevitable — more expensive bailouts.

The Portuguese Parliament approved an unpopular debt-reducing package, including tax hikes and cuts in pay and welfare benefits. But while that helped to avoid a sharper deterioration in bond markets, the sense among analysts was that the move had only bought a little time.


Adding to the pressure, Ireland's major banks were hit with credit downgrades — one to junk bond status — as speculation mounted that the EU-IMF bailout of Ireland, to be revealed within days, would require investors to take losses, a possibility earlier denied by officials.

"This confusing `pea-soup' of indecision, vacillation and disunity by the EU is beginning to create unnecessarily seismic waves of fear in international bond and money markets," said David Buik, markets analyst at BGC Partners.

Yields in fiscally weak eurozone countries remained near record highs Friday, stocks slumped across the board and the 16-nation euro lost another 0.8 percent on the day to trade at $1.3241, just off two-month lows.

Portugal's high debt and low growth have alarmed investors, but the government insists it doesn't require an international rescue — a line ominously reminiscent of claims by Greece and Ireland before their massive rescues.

Analysts say markets need more reassurance from EU leaders that the rot can be stopped in Portugal before spreading to Spain, the continent's fourth-largest economy — a scenario that would threaten the 16-nation euro currency itself.

The financial crisis took a step in that direction this week, as it increasingly becomes apparent that bond investors will not be pacified by austerity measures but want weak countries' public finances to be plugged once and for all. Greece, which accepted a bailout six months ago, and Ireland are still far from being able to return to international debt markets.

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Ireland's crisis flares as investors dump bonds

Shawn Pogatchnik
Associated Press

DUBLIN – Ireland's financial troubles loomed large Wednesday as investors — betting that the country soon could join Greece in seeking a bailout from the European Union — drove the interest rate on the country's 10-year borrowing to a new high.

The yield, or interest rate, on 10-year bonds rose above 8 percent for the first time since the launch of the euro, the European Union's common currency, 11 years ago.

Bond traders increasingly believe that Ireland soon will be forced to tap Europe's emergency fund for euro-zone nations facing a threat of bankruptcy. The 16 nations of the euro zone created that euro750 billion backstop in May as the EU and International Monetary Fund provided an emergency euro110 billion loan to Greece.


Another bailout would send more shock waves through the currency union, which has struggled to find ways to keep individual governments from overspending and threatening the currency's value.

Flaring financial tensions has driven the euro off recent 6-month highs of $1.428 versus the dollar. The euro was trading Wednesday at $1.3760, down from its opening of $1.3773.

The cost of funding Irish debt has risen steadily since September, when the government admitted its bailout of five banks would cost at least euro45 billion, equivalent to euro10,000 for every man, woman and child in Ireland. That gargantuan bill, in turn, has made the projected 2010 deficit rise to 32 percent of GDP, the highest in post-war Europe.

The yield on 10-year Irish notes rose steadily from 7.94 percent and passed 8.4 percent in afternoon trade. As the value of bonds fall, buyers demand ever-higher yields as compensation.

Traders accelerated their offloading of Irish bonds after London-based LCH.Clearnet Group announced Wednesday it would require clients who deal in Irish bonds to increase the percentage of cash deposited up front to 21 percent, compared to a usual deposit of less than 6 percent. The move came on top of decisions this month by the governments of Russia and Chile to stop buying Irish debt.

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