Largest Sunspot In Cycle 24 Emerges: Chance Of X-Class Flare Increases Dramatically

Chris Carrington

The southeastern section of the Sun is covered with a large dark blotch. Sunspot AR1787 is one of the biggest if not the biggest of the whole of cycle 24. The spot is massive; the dark cores of the spots alone are the size of the Earth and it has the energy to produce X-Class flares, though that magnetic field is still building and is nowhere near its full potential yet. The magnetic field will continue to build in strength and this dramatically increases the chance of a large X-class flare.

If an X-class was thrown off today, Earth would not be directly in the firing line. But over the next few days the sunspot will move across the solar disc putting us squarely in its sights.

AR1787 is close behind it, another very active region that already has the energy for M-Class flares, and NOAA predicts that the chance of an M-class within the next 24 hours is 40% and an X-Class 10% during the same period.

New Solar Cycle Prediction

Editor's Note: This was sent by a reader of Terrence Aym's article: Scientists' Research Warns Humanity May Be Facing "Vortex of Death" 

NASA Science News

May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

(Upper) Right: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.

It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker.

"The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

Scientists' Research Warns Humanity May be Facing 'Vortex of Death'

Solar Cycle 24 - worst yet? - Wiki/NOAA image

Terrence Aym
Helium

Professor Raymond Wheeler, from the University of Kansas, at first almost stumbled into the frightening data. The connection was initially discovered by noted Russian scientist Alexander Chizhevsky during 1915: solar storms trigger conflict, wars and death. A vortex of death.

Chizhevsky found after intense research that the rise and fall of solar activity—interacting with the earth's magnetic field—causes mass changes in human's perspective's, moods, emotions and behavioral patterns. All are affected by sunspots and solar flares.

Building upon the Russian scholar's research, Wheeler applied a numerically weighted ranking system during the 1930s to separate wars and even individual battles assessing them on length and severity.

He then correlated the impressive data he'd amassed with the 11-year sunspot cycle.

The results were revealing…and horrifying.